Energy Market Update: April - June 2018
Energy Market Update: April - June 2018
Energy Market Update: April - June 2018

Ontario Electricity

A below seasonal spring has resulted in a higher than expected Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) with the weighted average HOEP for April hitting 29.7 $/MWh compared to an April 2017 value of 11.1 $/MWh. In May, the HOEP returned to a more normal value of 13.1 $/MWH but was still well above the 2017 May price of 3.2 $/MWh. Looking ahead, June is trending toward a weighted average HOEP of 18 $/MWh, which is well above the 2017 value of $5.9 /MWh but within range of what is expected for the month. June has seen the highest global adjustment (GA) first estimate since GA charges were first introduced in Ontario at 133.4 $/MWh. The primary driver for this is an under-collection in May, where there was not enough demand to pay for the generation through the HOEP. While this is not expected to be the new normal, it is expected that GA values will be higher going forward as a result of the increased uptake in the ICI program. Looking ahead to a warm summer the HOEP is expected to hover in the 30 $/MWh range with the GA pulling back to a more normal value in the 100-110 $/MWh range.

The peak setting season is in full swing with June 18th hitting a peak demand of 21,369 MW at hour ending 10; one to two hours before the predicted peak. After the Allocated Quantity of Energy Withdrawn (AQEW) is released, this peak is expected to land in the 20,800 MW range which would put it above critical peak #3 from 2017/2018. With an above average summer predicted, it isn’t expected that this peak will maintain its position in the top 5. The next potential peak is predicted for June 29th, and with hot weather expected for the first week of July, there is a good chance of more peak days in the near future.

The Ontario grid added another 99.1 MW of wind power capacity in Q2 with North Kent Wind 1 coming online in May. With this addition, Ontario is now capable of producing 4,412 MW of Wind power.

 

Quebec Electricity

Effective April 1st, 2018, Hydro Quebec rates for medium sized customers in rate codes G and M saw an increase of approximately 0.3%. Rate code L customers have been spared and have not seen any increase with the new rates.

As of April 1st, Hydro Quebec’s new ‘Industrial Revitalization Rate’ is available for new class L customers, as well as those increasing electrical demand by 500 kW or more. The new rate has a floor price of 3.27 ¢/kWh applicable to loads installed after an agreement is signed.

Hydro Quebec has put a temporary halt on connection requests for crypto currency mining operations. The utility is reviewing a vast number of applications and plans on implementing a special power rate for crypto currency to curb growth in this area.

 

Alberta Electricity

The Alberta Pool price for electricity averaged $ 57.6 /MWh for Q2 2018 which is almost a 300% increase from the same quarter in 2017. In Q2, the pool price peaked at $999.99 /MWh on two separate days, with May 15th maintaining above $800 /MWh for 9 consecutive hours. Overall, 52 hours exceeded $500 /MWh.

 

Atlantic Electricity

New Brunswick Power has won an insurance settlement related to the Point LePreau refurbishment. As a result, the requested 2% average increase has been reduced to 1.5%. The New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) has yet to rule on the application.

The public utility board for Newfoundland and Labrador has approved a rate increase effective July 1st 2018. For commercial customers, this will result in approximately an 8% increase in overall power costs.

 

Natural Gas

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) approved a decrease requested by both Union Gas and Enbridge resulting in Union Gas prices decreasing by 12.5% for Q2 resulting in an effective price of 13.93 ¢/m3. Enbridge Gas decreased by 13.3% to an effective price of 9.23 ¢/m3.

 

Energy Efficiency Incentive Programs

The change in government that took place on June 8th in Ontario, has resulted in the cancellation of the Green Ontario Fund (GreenON). While no new rebates will be accepted, existing applications, depending on status, will be honoured. At this time, other Ontario incentive programs continue to operate but more program reductions are expected.

 

 

Our Authors:

Helen Reeve has worked in the energy efficiency field for the past 21 years. She is currently Director, Energy and Project Management on a client account with BGIS, where she is leading teams of energy professionals and project managers. She is responsible for a multi-million dollar national energy management program as well as the implementation of more than $40M in capital projects annually in Ontario.

Jonathan Estey is Energy Manager, Bell Energy Program at BGIS. Jonathan has more than eight years of experience working in Telco and Data Center Buildings, and has extensive experience with design and installation of electrical and mechanical systems. He is a certified data center design and building commissioning professional with in depth knowledge of building management systems, which helps him excel in his role at BGIS. 

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